Mixed Signals for the Construction Industry: The Q3-Q4 2024 Metrics Index Report

Each quarter, we pull and aggregate anonymized, real-time data from 1,000+ Trimble customers who entered data into our Viewpoint Vista or Viewpoint Spectrum ERP systems and compare it to the same quarter the year prior. We pull data related to project starts, contract values, net hiring and cash flows since those metrics provide a good snapshot of the overall health of the construction industry. Together, these stats collectively form our Quarterly Construction Metrics Index.

Our latest report provides a comprehensive look at the construction industry's performance through the second half of 2024 and includes expert insights from leading CPA firms to provide you with the information you need to make more informed business decisions in 2025. A snapshot of our findings is included below, but download the report to get all the data and insights.

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Project Starts Were Mixed

In Q3-Q4 2024, new project starts declined 27% compared to Q3-Q4 2023, with specialty contractors experiencing the steepest drop at 30%. However, the year-over-year comparison shows a much smaller overall decline of 2.6%, suggesting some potential market stabilization. Industry experts attribute this decline primarily to delayed starts due to high interest rates and market uncertainty rather than a fundamental weakness in demand. Importantly, backlog volumes remain strong as existing projects continue through completion phases.

“Year-over-year contract starts have declined in all sectors, in many instances, the declines are attributable to delayed starts due to interest rate and market uncertainty. Most contractors report healthy backlog volume from a total value perspective although start dates continue to slide.” – Aaron Faulk, Assurance Services Partner and Construction National Practice Leader at Moss Adams

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Contract Values: A Tale of Two Markets

Contract values for the second half of 2024 showed split performance–likely linked to federal infrastructure spending, which continues to provide some welcome stability for civil projects. 

• Specialty contractors saw a 40% decrease in contract values
• General contractors experienced a 34% decline
• Heavy highway and civil contractors bucked the trend with a 12% increase

According to industry experts, this trend should persist through 2027, supported by ongoing infrastructure initiatives. The private sector, however, may face more challenges as higher interest rates impact project financing and development decisions.

“In times of uncertainty, project focus may shift. We are seeing this in the shift from other sectors to infrastructure (including heavy highway and civil contractors). Infrastructure projects are typically reliant on governmental funding, which would have less exposure to the factors affecting other sectors of construction.” – Joel Dziedzic, Partner at Forvis Mazars

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Hiring Remains Strong Despite Challenges

Despite challenges with new project starts and contract values, the data showed surprisingly robust hiring trends across all sectors, indicating continued confidence in future work:

• Specialty contractors led with an 18% increase
• Heavy highway and civil contractors achieved 13% growth
• General contractors managed an 8% increase
• Regional variations show the Northeast leading at 13% growth, followed by the Plains region at 10%

Finding skilled labor has historically been one of the construction industry's biggest challenges, making employee retention and training increasingly critical.

“The hiring trends are not surprising at all, as many construction companies have been doing more with less in the last few years. There are significant unfilled trade and construction management positions across the nation and across the verticals which still need to be filled, so hiring is expected to continue to be strong across the construction industry.” – Josh Billiard, CPA and Construction Partner at Plante Moran

Read more in the full report